WASHINGTON — The prospect of higher taxes on long-term capital gains and dividends may spur a selloff of stocks and other assets by the end of this year, according to wealth-management advisors.

Investors and business owners are on high alert because of a proposal by Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, to hike capital gains and dividend tax rates for many investors by between five and 13 percentage points.

Some advisors are telling clients to consider taking gains soon, because tax rates could change next year, particularly if Democrats win the White House and hold on to their congressional majorities.

“For the foreseeable future, you’re not going to get a better chance to move out of appreciated positions, from a tax perspective,” said Hank Alden, an advisor at Everest International Group.

Investment advisors caution that taxes alone should not be the overriding factor in investment decisions and decisions to buy or sell should be made as part of an overall strategy related to one’s portfolio.

But for many investors who have stocks or other holdings that they would otherwise sell in the next several years, the window for doing so at preferential tax rates may be closing.

Obama wants to bump the long-term capital gains and dividend rates up from their current level of 15% to at least 20%, and possibly as high as 28%.

The higher rates would apply only to individuals with income in excess of $200,000 or more, or couples earning more than $250,000.

Jason Furman, economic director for the Obama campaign, said that even for those making more than that amount, “we believe a rate much closer to 20% would be feasible.” That is based on campaign projections that assume that other Obama proposals would also be enacted.

Obama’s opponent, GOP nominee-designate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., favors keeping the capital gains and dividend rates at 15% for all investors, regardless of income level.

Screening for “Insiders” Business owners in particular may accelerate plans to sell their firms because of a looming capital gains increase, wealth advisors said.

“A number of family businesses have asked us the question, if we sold later than 2008, how much would my business have to appreciate just to break even,” or to realize as much profit as they would if they sold in 2008, said Jeff Paravano, a partner at the law firm of Baker Hostetler.

“When they see the spreadsheet, and the additional tax, a number of them have decided to sell this year,” Paravano said.

Some investors are even trying to turn a looming tax increase to their advantage by betting that business owners will sell before the tax hike. Investment advisor Robert Willens said some investors are “screening” for companies where founders or their descendants own a large share of the company stock.

Since those “insiders” are likely to have a low basis, they will be more motivated to avoid the tax hit by selling the business before the higher rate kicks in, he said.

“If investors believe a company will be sold at a premium, they may buy in the hope of reaping gains,” said Willens.

Dividend Rate Hike

Companies that pay dividends and their shareholders also are feeling pressure to act ahead of any tax hike.

Some companies may accelerate their fourth-quarter dividend payment from December 2008 from January 2009, according to Paravano.

In anticipation of a higher tax rate on dividends, investors who hold income-producing stock may want to shift to stock that doesn’t pay dividends and roll that into a tax-preferred savings vehicle such as an individual retirement account. That way the entire investment could appreciate without being taxed until the IRA is cashed out.

But they will be limited by annual contribution limits to IRAs, set at $5,000 for 2008, with an additional $1,000 for individuals over 50.

Uncertainty about how quickly Congress might move to raise taxes, and when higher rates will actually take effect, adds to the urgency. While recent GOP-led Congresses have typically made tax changes prospective from the date a bill is signed into law, that has not always been the practice, according to wealth advisors and economists.

Under current law, the 15% rate on capital gains and dividends is in effect until the end of 2010. But many observers expect Congress to act next year to fix the estate tax. Facing budgetary pressures, lawmakers may move at the same time to hike capital gains, dividend and other tax rates that were cut during President George W. Bush’s first term.

Economic Impacts

Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass., said lawmakers will weigh carefully the effect of tax increases on an economy already burdened by high energy prices and credit woes. “We don’t want to do anything that would slow a recovery. But the deficit is a very stubborn fact,” Neal said in an interview.

Economists disagree over the broad economic impacts of an increase in the capital gains and dividend rates. Stephen Entin, president and executive director of the Institute for Research on the Economics of Taxation, has argued that a hike in the capital gains rate to 25% could damp the gross domestic product by as much as 6% over the long term.

But Furman of the Obama campaign said there is evidence that measured increases in tax rates that help reduce the deficit, as Obama is proposing, will not have a sustained negative effect on the economy.

Furman also said other Obama proposals will encourage savings and investment, such as an enhanced saver’s credit for lower-income earners.

“What investors should look at is what’s going to happen to overall economic policy. This is a change in economic strategy to emphasize fiscal responsibility in a way that we haven’t seen,” said Furman.

By Martin Vaughan
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES